China economy accelerates in Q1 but virus stalks outlook

China’s economic growth accelerated in the first quarter of the year to 4.8 percent, official data showed Monday, but the government warned of "significant challenges" ahead while massive Covid-19 lockdowns started to bite.

The world’s second-biggest economy had lost steam in the latter half of last year with a property slump and regulatory crackdowns, pulling down growth.

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But it exceeded expectations in the first three months of 2022, growing 4.8 percent on-year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said, with Lunar New Year spending and factory production cajoling growth.

The weeks ahead, however, appear treacherous for the economy with Beijing’s unrelenting zero-Covid approach to outbreaks clogging supply chains and locking down tens of millions of people -- including in the economic dynamos of Shanghai and Shenzhen as well as the northeastern grain basket of Jilin.

Virus restrictions in March have already gouged at retail sales, as consumers shied away from shopping, and drove up unemployment.

"With the domestic and international environment becoming increasingly complicated and uncertain, economic development is facing significant difficulties and challenges," NBS spokesman Fu Linghui said on Monday.

The pandemic rebound -- as well as the sanctions binding Russia’s economy -- ups the ante on officials to deliver Beijing’s full-year growth target of around 5.5 percent.

The target comes in a pivotal political year for President Xi Jinping who is eyeing another term in power at the Party Congress to be held this autumn.

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The current virus outbreak is the worst since the peak of the first wave which emerged in Wuhan in late 2019, and the economy is beginning to weaken.

Industrial production growth eased to 5.0 percent in March, NBS data showed, down from the January-February period.

Meanwhile, retail sales sank 3.5 percent and the urban unemployment rate ticked up to a 22-month high of 5.8 percent last month.

"March activity data suggests that China’s economy slowed, especially in household consumption," Tommy Wu, lead China economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note.

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